tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1398767302832663789.post7179939395541747090..comments2024-02-12T14:21:59.286-06:00Comments on Richardson Echo: RISD May 2022 Elections GradeRichardson Echohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11270739420864725218noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1398767302832663789.post-12150685534400537642022-05-09T13:58:21.824-05:002022-05-09T13:58:21.824-05:00Someone would first have to define such a system. ...Someone would first have to define such a system. But it won't be me. I've never seen such a system for an election with two candidates (just ask Nate Silver), to say nothing of three candidates.Mark Stegerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02376182294736839659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1398767302832663789.post-57060079398250001292022-05-09T12:01:48.764-05:002022-05-09T12:01:48.764-05:00I look forward to your predictions with such a sys...I look forward to your predictions with such a system. Richardson Echohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11270739420864725218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1398767302832663789.post-75916643673694446242022-05-09T11:54:53.640-05:002022-05-09T11:54:53.640-05:001% off would have been excellent. Your "Most ...1% off would have been excellent. Your "Most likely" scenarios also contained Eron Linn coming out on top. You were 24% away from that. So do you average (1% + 24% / 2 = 12.5%) and say that's still "close but no cigar"? A system that allows you to predict two quite different outcomes as "most likely" and then claim success when one of the two comes close needs to be rethought.Mark Stegerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02376182294736839659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1398767302832663789.post-22119327460603143242022-05-09T11:43:48.880-05:002022-05-09T11:43:48.880-05:00Thanks for the comment. We will partly agree to di...Thanks for the comment. We will partly agree to disagree. Of course, one can always improve. however, less than one percent from "Most likely" (and is that not math and scoring), none of the "least likely" occurring, and another "Most likely" occurring is in the realm of "close but no cigar."<br /><br />If I was to get this result 20 times for 20 elections then the record would be at least 50% most likely occurring and 0% least likely occurring and the rest of differing probabilities. For a probabilistic prediction, that would not be so bad.Richardson Echohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11270739420864725218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1398767302832663789.post-69206291978624762332022-05-09T11:20:45.331-05:002022-05-09T11:20:45.331-05:00Thanks for the effort. Your "system" nee...Thanks for the effort. Your "system" needs work. You understood the factors at work here (power of incumbency, influence of PAC money, etc.). But when your District 2 "Most likely" predictions were for Pacheco or Linn to win, there's no way I would describe that as "close but no cigar." You need a mathematical scoring system, kind of like those scales at the fair have.Mark Stegerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02376182294736839659noreply@blogger.com