RISD May 2022 Election Predictions

RISD Single District Map

I am going to make election predictions. Tonight, not long after posting this, election results for the May 2022 Richardson ISD Board of Trustee elections will roll in. Everyone asks me, "You know Richardson. Who do you think will win?" Everybody does something dumb in their lives. Now it is my turn.

I am putting this on record just as an experiment - partly amusing, partly serious - so I can be held accountable and hopefully gain bragging rights.

These "predictions" are not absolute predictions. Anyone who knows me knows I do not really think that way. I am predicting what outcomes I think are more or less likely to occur. I will not predict percentages of vote but rank first, second, and third in these three way races.

These predictions are highly analytical from the extensive World Richardson Echo Chambers of Knowledge. Otherwise known as WRECK. (i.e. my desk and laptop.) You might have already heard of this method by this name: Guessing.

By the way, if you haven't yet voted there is still a chance until 7PM. The Richardson Echo's Voter Guide is here.

Here we go!

District 2 - Eron Linn, Vanessa Pacheco, Sherry Clemens 

The two wildcards which may determine the outcomes are the power of incumbency possibly benefiting Eron Linn, and the influence of the heavy PAC money spent in favor of Sherry Clemens.

Most Likely

If the anti-CRT campaign has any hold to it and if Pacheco's momentum is still there then Linn will potentially be at the bottom as he loses voters. On the other hand, if Linn's incumbency still matters and if the anti-CRT effort falters then Linn could come out on top.

1 - Vanessa Pacheco. 2 - Sherry Clemens. 3 - Eron Linn.
1 - Eron Linn.  2 - Vanessa Pacheco. 3 - Sherry Clemens.

Next Most Likely

If the anti-CRT campaigns doesn't take hold and Linn's incumbency power falters then I could see a Pacheco vs Linn runoff.

1 - Vanessa Pacheco. 2 - Eron Linn.  3 - Sherry Clemens. 

Less Likely 

If Linn's incumbency falls flat then I see that it is possible that Clemens comes out on top but I think if that happens I think it is more likely that Pacheco does in that scenario.

1 - Sherry Clemens.  2 - Vanessa Pacheco. 3 - Eron Linn.

Least Likely

I see Vanessa Pacheco coming in third as the least likely outcome. She got over 40% against an incumbent 3 years ago. She has momentum which I don't believe she has lost.

So least likely outcomes are:

1 - Eron Linn. 2 - Sherry Clemens. 3 - Vanessa Pacheco.
1 - Sherry Clemens. 2 - Eron Linn.  3 - Vanessa Pacheco.

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District 5 - Rachel McGowan, Kile Brown, Jan Stell

Most Likely

Simply put I see that McGowan has run a strong campaign with community support. I think she comes in first. The only difference is if the anti-CRT campaign has any traction or if there is a runoff at all.

1 - Rachel McGowan. 2 - Kile Brown. 3 - Jan Stell
1 - Rachel McGowan. 2 - Jan Stell. 3 - Kile Brown.

Less Likely

It is possible the Brown's church contacts and other endorsements have hidden value. Possible, but I see it as less likely that McGowan coming in first.

1 - Kile Brown. 2 - Rachel McGowan.  3 - Jan Stell
1 - Kile Brown. 2 - Jan Stell. 3 - Rachel McGowan.

Least Likely

I don't see Jan Stell getting anywhere. I could be wrong and the anti-CRT effort may gain traction but I am not feeling it. 

1 - Jan Stell. 2 - Kile Brown. 3 - Rachel McGowan.
1 - Jan Stell. 2 - Rachel McGowan. 3 - Kile Brown.

So that's it. Let the chip fall and let's wait for the outcomes.